Medical researcher working in laboratory

Cell and gene therapy in 2040

Seizing today’s moment to propel the industry forward

As seen in their leading role in the fight against COVID-19, the hype around cell and gene therapy (CGT) is finally translating into reality. The market is thriving with innovation, investment, partnerships and M&A activity. But much remains unclear about how these therapies can deliver full value, and where pharma and biotech leaders should invest energy and resources.

Projected size of CGT market by 2025.
Open or planned CGT trials.
Projected new approved CGT products in the US each year from 2025.

Shaping the future of Cell & Gene Therapy

To help navigate the future, we’ve explored four potential future CGT scenarios using our proprietary approach to scenario planning and exploring uncertainty. Based on the insight and input of biochemists, biologists, mechanical engineers, materials specialists, healthcare experts, strategists and more, we formulated four potential views of the future. The aim is to provoke, not predict – to immerse leaders in the future, and identify how they can prepare for and shape it.

To enable future success, leaders need to look beyond immediate challenges to ensure their organisation can compete and continue to bring innovative solutions to patients. This will require careful consideration of key topics such as early research, clinical trials, manufacturing and supply chain, regulations, reimbursement and commercialisation.

What will the industry look like in 2040?

We analysed uncertainties facing the CGT field using two axes – ‘accessibility’ and ‘level of personalisation’ – chosen based on our commercial and technical insight in this space. This approach produced four extreme points on the axes – and four potential futures.

What will the industry look like in 2040?

Bespoke World, where scientific innovations create a better understanding of disease physiology and greater availability to personalised treatments for many diseases, especially in the rare disease space.

Mass-Market World, where advances in cell reprogramming, genetic editing and manufacturing mean affordable off-the-shelf (allogeneic) CGTs are available globally for a broad range of diseases and uses.

Eclipse World, where success is limited in off-the-shelf therapies. Successful CGTs remain tailored to the patient and, with challenges controlling the cost of manufacturing/supply chain, prices remain high.

Blocker World, where off-the-shelf CGTs advance but ultimately come up against hurdles that block their commercial success.

Today’s players must actively plan for multiple futures to ensure they are part of tomorrow’s landscape. Our report explores the considerations for each world, as well as six steps leaders can take now to shape and operate in whatever world emerges.

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