Vision for banking

Today’s balance of power is expected to shift.

Retail banking is one of many vital industries undergoing ever-faster change. Technology is a transformative force, both for established banks and on the ability of non-financial businesses to enter the sector and provide banking services in new and different ways.

Our research of 600 technology and banking leaders reveals that the decade ahead could see retail banking break away decisively from the certainties and assumptions of the past.

To better understand how the future of retail banking might evolve – and how business leaders should respond – we developed four potential industry scenarios for 2030. Our unique FutureWorlds™ methodology uses detailed scenario planning to help businesses anticipate and prepare for the future. The aim is to provoke, not predict, with the aim of helping firms develop informed, flexible strategies.

Report

Retail banking: breaking away from the certainties and assumptions of the past

Seize the opportunity of the next decade

Our four scenarios for retail banking in 2030:

1. Centralised Big-tech

The triumph of Silicon Valley sees retail banking disrupted by full-service technology firms originating from outside the banking industry.

2. Equivalent Evolution

Retail banking markets in most countries are dominated by a relatively small number of full-service incumbent banks offering a wide portfolio of products and services.

3. Fragmented Finance

A vibrant, innovative ecosystem sees the provision of retail banking increasingly shaped by specialised technology firms originating outside traditional banking.

4. Disparate Domination

Specialised incumbent banks, offering one or few niche products or services outperform their rivals and now dominate the retail banking space.

Report

Retail banking: breaking away from the certainties and assumptions of the past

Seize the opportunity of the next decade

Where to go from here

Today’s operating environment is exceptionally volatile, with drivers such as interest rates, geo-politics, and demographics inherently unpredictable. The acceleration of digitilisation introduces another disruptive factor to the equation.

Yet even if the future is beyond banks’ control, there are a number of key areas where we believe banking leaders can take positive action now to prepare for success in an uncertain world.

Inside the report are six actions with a dual benefit. As well as making it easier for banks to create value for all stakeholders in the medium term, they’ll spearhead new ways of thinking, enhance long-term flexibility, and prepare banks for any future eventuality – ensuring you win, whichever future unfolds.

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