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2004

3G can do more for business and consumers but more wireless capacity will be essential

By Dr Phil White

The Financial Times12 November 2004

Sir,

Bob Fuller's point that consumers are prepared to pay for content that is "immediate, accessible and fun" is reassuring ("A third generation dilemma for mobile operators", November 10). But we should not let ourselves be led down a path that suggests 3G is just about high-value transitory video clips or media-rich "sweets" that taste nice, last a minute or two, but are soon forgotten until the next purchase.

3G is capable of much more than this - it has the potential to deliver high volumes of content that has lasting value. It can do so to business users, where life without e-mail has already become unthinkable. It can do so to consumers, where the iPod and the digital camera are today's essentials.

The good news is that customers are already demonstrably willing to pay for services. The "one-click" approach to shopping used so effectively by Amazon and iTunes can be extended into the mobile environment to give instant access to content of choice. The bad news is that wireless tariffs will have to come down yet further to avoid the delivery cost dominating the price to the customer.

How is this going to be achieved? In the absence of potential for order-of-magnitude cost savings in wireless networks, the only way in which this is going to be possible is by increasing the volume of transactions in a big way. This is going to need more investment in network equipment - not necessarily in coverage, but in capacity in key locations where users want access. The power of the impulse purchase lies in immediate, convenient delivery.

The mobile network operator 3 has undoubtedly come a long way in the past couple of years, both in conquering the technology and understanding the market, but the need for learning is by no means over. Creating viable businesses in 3G is going to need the operators to keep right up with consumer trends over the next few years.

Dr Phil White, Head of Wireless Technology,
PA Consulting Group, London SW1W 9SR

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