PA analysis highlights rising costs of ERTMS onboard equipment in Sweden
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Tobias Kihlén has been interviewed by Swedish rail industry publication about a new PA Consulting analysis prepared for the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket). The report examines the cost of equipping Sweden’s rail fleet with onboard equipment needed for the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) between 2026 and 2037.
According to the analysis, the total cost of upgrading Swedish-registered locomotives and rail vehicles to ERTMS could reach as much as SEK 23.8 billion over the period, with an estimated average cost of SEK 13 billion. The report highlights significant uncertainty around future costs, particularly as the rail sector moves towards the next generation of ERTMS technology.
Kihlén explains that the assessment is based on actual installation costs and supplier quotations gathered from rail operators, vehicle owners, manufacturers and industry organisations.
“We have specifically looked at the actual costs from completed installations and at supplier quotations.”
“The information we received has been validated against independent European sources and previous Swedish analyses to ensure that we obtained reliable data.”
The report also points to a sharp increase in onboard equipment costs in recent years, driven by technological developments, regulatory requirements and a more concentrated supplier market.
“There has been a dramatic increase in the cost of adapting locomotives and rail vehicles for ERTMS in recent years.”
The main reason is that there has been a consolidation among suppliers of onboard equipment. Today, only a handful of companies manufacture and offer onboard equipment, which has led to significantly higher prices.”
PA’s analysis concludes that government co-financing remains critical if ERTMS is to be implemented across a substantial part of the Swedish rail network.
“Government co-financing support for onboard equipment is absolutely essential if ERTMS is to be implemented across a significant part of the Swedish railway network.”
Looking ahead, Kihlén warns that costs may continue to rise, particularly as the industry prepares for future upgrades to Baseline 4 technology.
It is important to monitor future cost developments, as both international and national reports indicate that costs may increase further, particularly in connection with upgrades to Baseline 4.”
Despite the challenges, Kihlén stresses the importance of the transition.
“It is worth emphasising that ERTMS is needed.”
“ATC and similar Class B systems must be replaced, partly because of the shortage of spare parts, but above all because there is a need for more modern systems.”
“For vehicle owners, it is now important to plan for onboard installations and for the implications for lifecycle planning across entire fleets.”
Read the article in Järnvägsnyheter in Swedish.
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