Sweden risks missing out on the power-hungry AI boom

Today, Sweden has a significant surplus of fossil-free electricity. The most value-creating use would be to power electricity-intensive industries that reduce global emissions, increase productivity, and generate tax revenues.

The major industrial transition requiring green hydrogen – and thus enormous amounts of fossil-free electricity – is being delayed. Meanwhile, another electricity-intensive sector is growing explosively: data centres driving AI development.

Players with enormous capital and investment appetites are lining up. If the largest facilities, with power demands of 100 MW and above are located in Sweden, global emissions will decrease compared to those that are established in coal- and gas-dependent regions. At the same time, more jobs are being created than the debate often admits, as an investment of that size effectively becomes a construction site for more than a decade.

According to the recently published Energy Transition Outlook 2025 report from Det Norske Veritas, energy demand from AI and data centres will grow dramatically. By 2060, the sector’s total electricity consumption is estimated to be at around 6,400 TWh – slightly more than all of Europe’s electricity use.

Today, preliminary decisions on timelines and costs for major grid connections take unacceptably long (evidence suggests over 24 months). Furthermore, communication between Svenska kraftnät (Svk), regional grid companies, and customers is inadequate. The result is that industry players avoid Sweden due to the uncertainties.

Svk operates under a principle of equal treatment. But when resource shortages cause investigations and decisions on connections to drag on for years, in practice equal treatment becomes indifference. In many other European countries, there are well-functioning processes that provide fast tracks for customers with high consumption.

The government can take inspiration from the UK, which has launched a comprehensive reform of the connection process, replacing the old “first come, first served” system with “first ready, first connected.” In other words, projects that are ready to build and strategically important are prioritised.

Svk plays a crucial role even though the application for connection normally goes to the regional grid company, as the company must always ask Svk about the possibilities of expanding its withdrawal subscription at the nearest transmission grid station. Svk needs to clearly describe what is required – but it must not take so long to do so.

Give Svk sufficient personnel specifically for large consumption connections. We are not talking about astronomical numbers. These are well-targeted reinforcements where the added value is significantly greater than the cost.

Large investors can pay for their customer-specific grid expansion but need predictability, quick feedback, and communication along the way. With clear criteria, open dialogue, and regular check-ins, project risks decrease and societal benefits increase.

We have three clear and reasonable proposals for improvement:

1. Introduce fast track processes for preliminary decisions for major customers, with dedicated teams at Svk and regional grid companies.
2. Shorten decision deadlines from today’s 24+ months to a maximum of 6 months.
3. Clarify how equal treatment can be combined with expedited handling of projects with significant societal benefits.

This is about taking climate responsibility and strengthening Sweden’s long-term competitiveness. We have the fossil-free electricity. Now we need the ability to make decisions.

Focusing on the early stages of the connection process is the fastest, cheapest, and most effective way to accelerate investments that both reduce emissions and support the development of Swedish welfare.

Read the story in Swedish in NyTeknik.