The Netherlands role as a hub in the sustainable aviation value chain

In 2025, SAF usage stood at 2% – a fraction of what is needed to make a meaningful impact on the sector’s emissions. At the same time, we are seeing several bottlenecks which, if addressed intelligently, could create a springboard for further growth.

The research report “Cacophony to Symphony: Successfully scaling sustainable aviation fuel” is based on global insights from nearly 600 executives across the SAF value chain. They point to several reasons why SAF has yet to take off.

Fundamentally, this is a cost issue, even in 2030, the entire value chain expects SAF to remain more expensive than kerosene. Airlines anticipate average costs will be 98% higher, while producers expect increases of up to 148%. This drives up risk premiums and widens the financing gap, an unsustainable situation for an industry operating on very thin margins.

Underlying this is a mismatch between policy and practice, meaning current measures are not yet driving meaningful scaling up of production and uptake. The result is a wait-and-see attitude: more than a third of airlines are not yet using SAF, and 37% of that group have no plans to do so. 66% of airports have no SAF strategy. On the production side, progress is also stalling: major players such as Shell and BP halted their SAF projects in Rotterdam in 2025 after determining they were not sufficiently competitive.

Beyond the impasse

SAF will only become truly affordable and scalable if Europe aligns policy, infrastructure and demand at the same time. Every euro of policy uncertainty translates into higher capital costs and therefore higher fuel prices. Conversely, revenue certainty and aggregated demand reduce both risk and cost.

The Netherlands is exceptionally well positioned to scale SAF due to ambitious 2030–2050 targets, high-quality infrastructure and logistics, a strong energy and CO₂ base for e-fuels, and a robust aviation sector. The potential to become a SAF hub is significant – provided we act now. According to our recent economic impact assessment for the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, the SAF sector could generate up to €1 billion in annual gross value added by 2050, supporting around 6,500 FTEs – approximately 25–30% of the current economic footprint of the entire Dutch refining sector.

This requires a coordinated approach across three dimensions of policy, infrastructure and demand stimulation. Government policy is a decisive factor. Without additional measures, SAF will remain a niche product. Achieving more ambitious outcomes calls for a coordinated package of measures focused on revenue certainty for producers, competitiveness, feedstock development, grid access and addressing permitting constraints. A practical first step would be a Dutch version of a revenue-certainty mechanism, similar to the one being developed in the UK. This alone would reduce risk premiums and bring investment decisions closer.

Around Schiphol, this means ensuring adequate storage, blending capacity, pipelines and fuelling services, with open and transparent access. The more open and competitive the system, the faster prices will fall. On the demand side, buyers are evolving from consumers into co-creators, forming a Dutch coalition in which airlines, cargo companies and large corporates jointly procure volumes. With simple, standardised contracts (including clear price bands and flexibility) and a book and claim system via a trusted registry, CO₂ reductions can be fairly allocated while reducing the effective purchase price.

Further acceleration requires standardisation and transparency. Model contracts, public progress data and a uniform reporting approach will reduce administrative burden, increase trust and provide financiers with the clarity they need.

This is therefore a call to make cost reduction a shared mission. As most airports fuel aircraft from a single fuel pool (with or without SAF), the best approach is to start with low blend ratios per airport and allocate the impact to specific routes. Even small percentages can deliver learning effects and volume traction, while keeping additional costs per passenger manageable through smart pricing and tradeable SAF attributes.

The cost of inaction is significant. It risks losing a strategically important industry and allowing other countries to take the lead. The flight path is clear: align the rules, share risks fairly, and position the Netherlands as the hub in the SAF value chain – the place where SAF becomes scalable.

Read the article in Duurzaam-Ondernemen in Dutch.