Nuclear in a connected energy system: Choosing the right technologies and tactics

However, the pathway to achieving widespread nuclear technologies such as small modular reactors and fission is unclear. Significant questions hover over policy, public perception, technologies, and commercialisation. Navigating the future energy system means looking ahead, and getting prepared.

Energy systems can shift slowly, such as the transition from coal power, or rapidly, in the case of renewable energy options. The renewables market reached $1.11 trillion in 2024, and is expected to grow to $1.69 trillion in 2029. It all depends on market factors, and how they interplay. Renewables growth was driven by demand for clean electricity, supportive government policies, and increased investment in solar, wind, hydro, and bioenergy. Nuclear’s resurgence represents another potential shift – one that requires a proactive response.

But there’s no crystal ball, so future planning is crucial. Failing to anticipate market dynamics can stall innovation and derail decarbonisation goals. For example, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies were heralded as critical for emissions reduction, yet deployment lagged for decades due to unclear policy signals and insufficient investment frameworks. Offshore wind projects in Europe also face delays resulting from patchwork policy decisions, and grid planning that hasn’t matched generation capacity. Similarly, the hydrogen economy faces slow growth despite early hype, caused by limited infrastructure and a lack of demand-side incentives. In the electrification space, underdeveloped charging infrastructure has put the brakes on EV adoption despite enthusiasm. These challenges not only increase costs, but slow the pace of emissions reduction.

Proactive, systems-led scenario planning helps avoid such pitfalls by aligning technology readiness, policy, and market incentives with long-term energy system needs. How can energy system stakeholders and investors gain a feasible future view that allows them to manage risks and opportunities in the transition to a connected energy system?

Map the market

Stakeholders in and beyond the energy system make educated guesses based on what they already know, and where they anticipate the market to go. Their decisions will be far more robust when backed by a thorough comprehension of the boundaries and dependences between radically different energy futures, and the role that key technologies play.

PA’s proprietary FutureWorlds™ methodology defines possible ‘worlds’ based on a range of trends and factors, including techno-economic assessments, to help stakeholders understand the key drivers and themes that influence energy markets and, importantly, energy policy. These trends could be political, regulatory, economic, social, or technological. A social trend, for example, might be public trust in nuclear energy, while a technological factor might be new industrial heat applications that utilise high-grade nuclear heat.

Setting out these trends helps to define possible threats (such as policy inertia, market volatility, or uncertain energy prices) and opportunities (such as regulatory reform). Plotting out the extreme impact for different themes helps to paint a picture of the likely future worlds, and the scenarios within them. When these distinct worlds are displayed in a quadrant, it’s possible to explore the interdependencies and relationships between them, revealing value-adding actions for stakeholders.

Play out the potential

Once the potential future worlds are defined, energy system stakeholders need to unpick the potential impact of certain decisions and actions. There are a range of methods to do that, including risk assessments that systematically evaluate threats and vulnerabilities, and ‘red team’ exercises that set group challenges around assumptions, plans, or strategies.

Another interactive methodology to play out the potential is wargaming. Wargaming is akin to a strategic or operational adventure game for decision-makers that tries to predict and understand the actions of other players in a given ecosystem, equipping leaders with the insights to make winning moves in the real world. Wargaming uses ideas, numbers, and tailored scenarios to see what might happen in the future.

We carried out a wargaming session for a transmission company in the US, helping the company to understand dependencies and simulate responses to various scenarios by pulling different levers.

Make the case for investment

Mapping future scenarios and playing out potential courses of action lay the foundations for evidence-based, informed decision-making in the real world. With the right people in the room, from all corners of the ecosystem, these exercises provide a strong indication of the next best steps for specific organisations, supporting the case for investment – or otherwise.

For example, a multi-national nuclear tech firm might want to assess market viability of scaled wind and solar, and work out whether they’ve hit the threshold of cost-effectiveness, rather than simply deploying nuclear alone. By identifying possible future worlds and playing out scenarios – such as a competitor announcing a fusion tech breakthrough that threatens SMR relevance – the firm could make the case for investment in operational readiness and strategic agility, enabling proactive pivots based on likely scenario outcomes.

Techno-economic assessments are fundamental to making the case for investment in specific technologies or approaches, and, importantly, to quantify how different factors and future scenarios react. These assessments provide a scientific, robust approach to predicting likely technological and economic outcomes, and can build in proprietary population data.

Set the wheels in motion

By mapping the market through FutureWorlds™, and playing out decisions using techniques such as wargaming, energy system stakeholders can gain structured foresight. Regardless of whether they are a nuclear developer or a utility, they can anticipate disruption, test strategic responses, and align investment with credible future scenarios. They can also begin to shape futures together.

Nobody can predict the future – but everyone can prepare for it. Bringing stakeholders together to define and co-create the future is fundamental in a connected energy system. A combination of transmission operators, nuclear generators, regulators, and investors – including learnings from other sectors – will ensure a rounded understanding of different priorities and views. With the right tools, data, and collaboration, stakeholders can navigate uncertainty with confidence, shaping a future energy system that is not only viable but vital to a resilient, low-carbon future.