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THE CO₂ EMISSIONS CHALLENGE

Some carmakers are still falling short of meeting the 2021 targets

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Every year, PA ranks the top carmakers in Europe according to their performance against the European Union’s (EU) CO₂ emission targets. Our latest rankings show many carmakers are struggling to hit the EU's CO₂ emission targets for 2021, so how can they make the changes required in time to avoid costly penalties?

The European automobile industry invests more than €40 billion into R&D annually, a large percentage of which goes towards fuel-efficiency technology. Much of this spend is driven by the EU's mandatory emission reduction targets for new cars to ensure that, by 2021, new car fleets do not emit more than an average of 95 grams of CO₂ per kilometre.

While our research reveals all carmakers are on track to meet the target of a fleet average of 130 grams of CO₂ per kilometre (g/km) by 2015, our latest forecast indicates four of the major carmakers – Volkswagen, BMW, Hyundai-Kia and Jaguar Land Rover – are likely to miss their targets.

Our way of benchmarking, which is unavailable anywhere else in the market, examines manufacturers’ performance against the overall EU target. It also analyses the specific targets set for each carmakers’ business based on their average vehicle weight and compares this with their forecasted performance based on overall fleet portfolio.

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To see which carmakers are on track to meet their 2021 targets, and how their levels of CO2 emissions compare, click on the interactive dashboard below.

Ranking per average Co2 (g/km) emission 2021:

Rank OEM 2021 Prediction 2021 Target
1 PSA (Peugeot-Citroen) 85.2 86.9
2 Fiat 88.0 93.0
3 Renault / Nissan 89.6 91.6
4 Toyota 90.9 93.4
5 Ford 94.9 93.6
6 General Motors 95.5 93.8
7 Hyundai / Kia 98.8 94.3
8 VW 98.8 95.9
9 Volvo 99.8 100.3
10 Daimler 103.2 101.6
11 BMW 103.3 100.9
12 Jaguar Land Rover 135.7 132.0

Please visit this web page on a desktop computer or tablet device to view the above table as an interactive dashboard.

How carmakers rank against their competitors for CO2 emissions. Forecast by PA Consulting Group is based on pre-2014 figures from Transport & Environment, ICCT, JLR Sustainability Report, ACEA and PwC Autofacts.

On target Closed to target Off target

ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS

CO2 car analysys of the results green

As you can see in our dashboard, individual CO₂ targets are achievable for a few carmakers such as PeugeotCitroen, Fiat, Renault/Nissan, Toyota and Volvo. PeugeotCitroen and Fiat, for example, will be more than 1g CO₂/km ahead of target, while Renault/Nissan will achieve 89.6g CO₂/km — 2g CO₂/km head of target in 2021.

CO2 car analysys of the results orange

Some carmakers are close to their specific targets with their European fleets — Ford, GM and more recently also Daimler — but they may still struggle to close the gap by 2021. Manufacturers that miss their 2021 targets risk penalties of €95 from the first gram of CO₂ above the limit multiplied by the number of cars they sell in 2020. For two German carmakers, this ranges from around €100 million for BMW and up to €1 billion for Volkswagen while Hyundai/Kia might face a penalty of more than €300 million.

CO2 car analysys of the results red

Jaguar Land Rover will also miss its target but selling 170,000 vehicles a year in Europe, their targets are worked out in a different way – essentially requiring a 45% reduction on their 2007 emissions. As long as their registered vehicles per year in Europe do not increase above 300,000 by 2020 they will be less affected by the EU legislation.


HOW CAN CARMAKERS MEET 2021 CO₂ EMISSION TARGETS?

To meet European carbon emissions reduction targets for 2021 and reduce the risk of incurring penalties, carmakers must take action on three fronts.

Optimise engine performance to achieve green compliance:

Improving the components that generate power and deliver it to the road surface lowers fuel consumption and helps carmakers make progress on reducing carbond emissions. For example, for a Volkswagen Golf or similar improvements to the drive train have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by up to 60%.

Cut vehicle weight to meet carbon emissions reduction targets:

For every 100 kg a vehicle’s weight is reduced fuel consumption falls by 0.25l/100km, delivering a reduction in carbon emissions of approximately 6-7g CO₂/km. For instance, carmakers must use innovative materials such as high-alloy steel aluminium and carbon fibre in the body shell chassis and drive train to reduce vehicle weight.

Reshape vehicle portfolio to ensure environmental compliance:

Carmakers can further reduce average carbon emissions from the fleet by reshaping their vehicle portfolios to include a higher proportion of smaller cars and engines down-sizing eight cylinders to six cylinders for instance, or six to four. Extending the use of alternative drive trains (hybrid or electric vehicles) in their portfolios will help them meet European targets.


ENGAGE WITH US

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We have worked with a number of manufacturers including Magna Steyr to ensure fleets meet EU carbon emission targets.

To find out how our experts can help you achieve these targets, contact us now.

Thomas Goettle

Thomas Goettle
PA manufacturing expert

Email | LinkedIn

To discover the threats posed by European Union’s CO2 emission targets for 2021 and recommendations on how carmakers should respond, download our report using the form below.

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