European Retail Finance: How do you think we stand in market terms at the start of 2005?
Paul Garvin: Retail banking is fragmented as a market across Europe. Certain countries – the ‘rim’ if you like – are enjoying a more open market, creating a dynamic environment in which to operate. These include the UK, Benelux, Scandinavia and Spain. Regulatory changes have meant that the market has been freed up here for a while – with some clearly beneficial changes. Who’d seriously argue these markets are any less successful, at least, than others?
Now the tide is rising in what have been more closed banking markets; I’m thinking especially of major banking markets such as Germany and to a lesser extent France. This is going to create a lot of opportunity and disruption, a lot of M&A, a lot of alliances being sought and created. But beyond these important areas, look at Central and Eastern Europe – there’s a lot of movement and growth there, a lot of interest from established players, a lot of questions starting to be asked about offshoring and outsourcing strategies, both by these new entrants and by established banks looking at these new markets. So a lot of change, I think.
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