The future of drone defence will be decided by the pace of innovation

Norway’s new drone strategy highlights one of the most important lessons from Ukraine: in modern warfare, the ability to innovate and adapt rapidly has become a decisive advantage. The key question is no longer which drones a country acquires, but how quickly new technologies can be tested, refined and improved through operational experience.

Sverre Diesen’s recent report, Lessons from the war in Ukraine – an updated picture 2024–2026, published by Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), describes how improvement cycles for autonomous systems are now measured in weeks rather than years.

The war demonstrates how difficult it has become to rely on traditional procurement models when technology evolves continuously.

Drones are no longer a niche capability used primarily for surveillance and support missions. They now influence situational awareness, electronic warfare, logistics and the protection of critical infrastructure. At the same time, countermeasures are advancing just as quickly.

Modern drone defence is therefore no longer simply about acquiring systems. It is about building an ecosystem that can continuously evolve and adapt.

Norway must shorten the path from operational learning to new capability

Perhaps the most important lesson from Ukraine is not any single technology, but the speed of learning and adaptation. Operational requirements, testing and development must be connected far more closely than in traditional defence procurement.

Technological sovereignty is becoming a new line of defence

This challenges many existing development and procurement models, which have largely been designed around long planning horizons and relatively stable technology cycles. The risk is that systems become outdated before they are fully operational.

If Norway is to build relevant drone and counter-UAS capabilities, the defence sector must become better at combining commercial technologies, operational experience and rapid development and production cycles.

The defining question is therefore not only which systems should be procured, but how quickly they can be improved and adapted to emerging threats.

Norway must build more resilient supply chains

Drone defence cannot be delivered through a single system from a single supplier. Effective counter-UAS capabilities rely on sensors, command-and-control systems, electronic warfare, effectors and software that must work seamlessly together.

At the same time, much of today's innovation in autonomous systems, sensors and software is taking place within smaller, highly specialised technology companies. This makes the ability to integrate new technologies quickly, including solutions developed by SMEs and emerging suppliers, increasingly important.

As a result, open standards, interoperability and modular architectures become essential. They allow new components to be incorporated more rapidly and capabilities to be upgraded without lengthy and costly development programmes.

The experience from Ukraine also highlights how vulnerable modern supply chains and component ecosystems can be. Access to critical components, manufacturing capacity and resilient supplier networks is therefore becoming an operational capability in its own right, rather than simply a logistics consideration.

Norway must strengthen operational innovation environments

Faster innovation is not only about technology. It is also about how technology is developed, tested and deployed operationally. The government's drone strategy rightly highlights the need for dedicated testing and exercise environments that support both the defence sector and civilian stakeholders.

Several allies are already moving in this direction. The UK's Task Force RAPSTONE, for example, demonstrates how testing, operational feedback and accelerated development cycles can be brought closer together within counter-UAS.

For Norway, this is about more than creating additional test facilities. It is about building environments where the Armed Forces, research institutions and industry can continuously test, learn, iterate and improve solutions under realistic conditions.

If Norway is to succeed, it will not be enough simply to acquire the most advanced technology. We must also develop the capability to innovate quickly, procure at speed and adapt continuously.

Read the article in Forsvarets forum in Norwegian.