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MEDIA RELEASE

Majority of car makers face huge fines for missing CO₂ emissions targets, PA Consulting predicts

Innovation and transformation consultancy PA Consulting’s annual forecast of car manufacturers’ performance against mandatory EU CO₂ emissions targets suggests that eight out of 13 car manufacturers will miss their 2021 targets and face significant fines.

Volkswagen, Ford, Fiat, PSA, BMW, Daimler, Mazda and Hyundai-Kia are predicted to miss their specific 2021 targets.

Volkswagen could be fined up to 1.4 billion Euros. PSA faces the biggest impact from fines based on EBIT (600 million Euros, representing 20 per cent of its 2017 profit).

Toyota remains the best performing manufacturer in the ranking, Renault Nissan Mitsubishi lists second and Volvo third (down from second last year). Ford and Volkswagen have gone backwards and in ninth and tenth place respectively.

Daimler and BMW are making progress towards their targets and Jaguar Land Rover still has the highest CO2 emissions, but is on track to meet its specific target.

From a regional perspective, Norway still leads the way seeing asignificant reduction on CO2 emissions from cars. All other European countries lag behind with CO2 levels staying broadly the same or even increasing since 2015. Germany is one of the worst performing countries, only ahead of Switzerland in the league table.

How car makers rank on CO2 emissions

 

 

ACTUAL DATA

(g CO/km)**

(g CO/km)

(g CO/km)***

(g CO/km)

RANK*

CAR MAKER

2016

2017

2021 TARGET

PA’S 2021 FORECAST

DEVIATION from target 

1

Toyota

105.5

103

95.1

87.1

-8

2

Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi

111.2

112

94.8

92.1

-2.7

3

Volvo

121.5

124.3

106.7

93.7

-13

4

Honda

126.9

127.3

96.6

95.5

-1.1

5

PSA

110.4

112

93

95.6

2.6

6

Hyundai-Kia

124.7

122

94

96.1

2.1

7

Mazda

127.7

131.2

94.9

98.1

3.2

8

Fiat-Chrysler (FCA)

120

120

91.8

98.5

6.7

9

Ford

120

121

95.4

99.8

4.4

10

Volkswagen

120.4

122

7.7

101.5

3.8

11

BMW

122.9

122

102.4

104.4

2

12

Daimler

125.3

127

102.8

104.6

1.8

13

Jaguar-Land-Rover

150

151.4

130.6

130.1

-0.5

*rank on 2021 forecast  |  **data from ICCT 2017  |  ***based on actual data until 2017 (ICCT) and PA forecast estimation

Michael Schweikl, automotive expert at PA Consulting, says: "Car makers are running out of time to improve performance quickly enough to avoid fines. Marketing, sales and pricing strategies that increase the take-up of low emissions vehicles will be key in getting manufacturers closer to the targets."

The Worldwide harmonised Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP) cycle will make meeting regulations even harder. The WLTP, which is part of the 2021 regulations, introduces more realistic testing conditions, providing an accurate basis for calculating fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. It is predicted that it will increase CO2 emissions by an average of 20 per cent.

Michael Schweikl continues: "Car makers need to look beyond 2021. The European Parliament voted to introduce rules that would force car makers to lower their 2020 CO2 emissions targets by 40 per cent by 2030. The final agreement could be closer to a compromise of 35% reduction by 2030 if all EU stakeholders agree on this latest proposition from environment ministers group.

"As such, car makers face a huge change in what they do as they move from the old technology of combustion engines to low emission electric vehicles. While much exciting technological development is already underway, manufacturers cannot underestimate the complexity, cost and cultural change required."

Driving into a low emissions future – looking beyond 2021

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