Some German carmakers will struggle to achieve the legally mandated European CO₂ targets in 2021. Under the targets, carmakers must reduce the average emissions of the cars they sell to below 95g of CO₂ per km.
Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW, Opel/PSA and Ford are facing fines of €3.6bn in total, according to annual forecasts by PA Consulting. This applies to every gram CO₂ above the 95g limit, mulitplied by the number of cars they sell 2020. This would leave VW facing a €1.7bn fine, Opel/PSA €700m, BMW facing a €600m penalty, Ford €350m and Daimler €200m. The international carmakers Volvo, Toyota, the Renault-Nissan Alliance and Jaguar Land Rover will be able to avoid such fines.
The carmakers race to 2021 has started
"The combination of SUVs and rapid decline of diesel cars adds complexity and difficulty and will increase the challenge that companies face," said Thomas Goettle, global head of automotive at PA Consulting. At the same time, "the German carmakers will try everything to avoid such fines," Goettle continued. "Penalties would mean a huge harm to their reputation, but achieving the targets remains difficult."