PA automotive expert, Thomas Goettle, is quoted in an article in Handelsblatt about carmakers’ performance against their targets based on EU regulation for 2021.
The article explains that this remains a challenge for most of the car manufacturers who also face a growing gap between official and actual CO₂ emission figures for new cars in the EU, according to the International Council on Clean Transportation. Even under the conditions of statutory standard tests, carmakers are having difficulties in reaching their targets to reduce average CO₂ emissions to 95 grams per km in the next five years.
Thomas explains these findings could prove particularly costly for German producers – reflected by a CO₂ ranking put together by PA Consulting Group. Referring PA’s analysis, Thomas explains that German carmakers BMW, Daimler and VW are likely to miss the legal CO₂ target in 2021.
“Technology is not the issue“, says Thomas. “However, it is more difficult to transfer these costs to the customers.”
Thomas goes on to say this shouldn’t be a problem for a profitable German car giant, but BMW has lost its lead over Daimler and will be 3.4 grams above the target value in 2021. If these numbers become reality, the EU could impose serious penalties.
The carmakers race to 2021 has started
The article explains that, according to PA, only four carmakers will comply with legal requirements. PSA comes out on top, currently already boasting the best average value of 104 grams for its fleet, which benefits from a high proportion of small cars. Renault-Nissan, which bet on electric cars early on, will also remain within the margins. The same applies for Toyota, even though they have yet to produce a purely electric car. The only premium manufacturer that is likely to meet the requirements is Volvo.
Thomas points out that Fiat-Chrysler have worsened their performance, with increased CO₂ emissions of 122.5 grams in 2015 – due to the bigger sales share of their Jeep brand as well as slow development of new engines. According to PA’s forecast they will decrease emissions to 98.6 grams CO₂ per km – still 6.5 grams above their target.
As Jaguar Land Rover comes last within the ranking, facing CO₂ emissions of 165 grams per km in 2015 based on their portfolio of powerful vehicles and SUV, Thomas concludes: “However, we remain optimistic that Jaguar could come close to their target benefitting from a legal exception. With annual sales below 300,000 cars within the EU they just have to achieve 132 grams CO₂ per km in 2021.”