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PA IN THE MEDIA

New forecast: Mercedes drives past Elon Musk and Tesla

Read the article in Danish here.

Berlingske reports that PA Consulting's ranking reveals that Tesla will continue to be the largest electric car manufacturer in 2019, but from 2021 it’s over. 

Tesla has for many years been the market leader in the development of electric vehicles and is synonymous with battery-powered cars.

But the golden days of this driver's race will soon be over, because by 2021 a large number of car manufacturers will have overtaken Tesla. German manufacturer Daimler, which owns Mercedes-Benz, will take the yellow jersey as the leading electric car maker.

According to PA's forecast, Tesla will continue to sell the most electric cars in 2019, but by 2021 the American producer will have dropped to seventh place on the rankings.

German producers will instead top the list. As well as Daimler, BMW and VW will be in the top five, while also the French/Japanese alliance Renault-Nissan Mitsubishi is expected to perform well.

Tesla meets an uncertain future

To assess the potential of car manufacturers, PA has scored each of them against six success factors, such as technology, strategy and financial results.

It is especially Tesla's expected earnings and its problems producing the Model 3 that mean Elon Musk and Tesla "meet an uncertain future". The company has not reached many production targets for Model 3 due to problems at both the battery and assembly plant.

See PA's forecast below:

  

Car maker

  
  

Rank in 2019

  
  

Rank in 2021

  

Tesla

1

7

Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi

2

3

BMW

3

2

Hyundai Kia

4

8

Daimler

5

1

Volvo

6

5

Volkswagen

7

4

Toyota

8

6

General Motors

9

10

Jaguar/Land Rover

10

9

PSA/Citroen/Opel

11

11

Ford

12

12

Fiat Chrysler

13

13

Methodology

To build the ranking, PA scored six key success factors out of 100, using an average to determine a car maker’s e-mobility potential:

  • Technology and strategy (model portfolio and technology roadmap) – 30% weighting factor;
  • Battery technology (cost position and technology maturity) – 20% weighting factor;
  • Culture and incentives (leadership and incentive system) – 10% weighting factor;
  • Supplier network (value chain integration) – 15% weighting factor;
  • Ecosystem and partners (charging technology and third-party services) – 15% weighting factor;
  • Financial performance (EBIT as e-mobility investment indication) – 10% weighting factor.

 

Driving into a low emissions future: How can car makers look beyond 2021

Download the report

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