Some German carmakers will struggle to achieve the legally mandated European CO₂ targets in 2021. Under the targets, carmakers must reduce the average emissions of the cars they sell to below 95g of CO₂ per km.
Six out of 11 carmakers are on course to miss the targets, according to annual forecasts by PA Consulting. "The German carmakers will struggle and at the same time try everything to avoid such fines," said Thomas Goettle, global head of automotive at PA. "Penalties would mean a huge harm to their reputation, but achieving the targets remains difficult," Goettle continued.
Carmakers that miss their targets face penalties, with a fine of €95 for every gram of CO₂ above the limit, multiplied by the number of cars they sell in 2020. This would leave VW facing a €1.7bn fine, Opel/PSA €700m, BMW facing a €600m penalty, and Ford €350m. Volvo, Toyota, the Renault-Nissan Alliance and Jaguar Land Rover will be able to avoid such fines.
The carmakers race to 2021 has started
For the next decade PA predicts that electric vehicles and combustion engines will approach cost and price parity. While the retail price for electric vehicles is still significantly higher than conventional cars today, this will change from 2020 onwards - first for the more expensive diesel and then also for petrol cars (2027 latest).