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2018 industry market forecast: Global optimism

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In Air Transport World’s 2018 forecast article, David Huttner, aviation expert at PA Consulting Group, says Germany and Italy have been through market trauma over the past 12 months, which Italy trying to “sustain what everyone knows is unsustainable” and Germany furthering Lufthansa’s market consolidation. 

“The specific situations and outcomes are different, but there are clearly officials in both nations who seem unwilling to let the market take its natural course,” he continues.

Meanwhile, the article goes on to read, UK airlines are seeing worrying signs of a lack of preparation for when the country leaves the European Union. “While no one truly believes all UK traffic will stop at the end of March 2019, Brexit is likely to inhibit bold moves into and out of the UK market while the future is uncertain. It is hard for both UK and non-UK airlines to develop a well-defined post-Brexit plan, when the UK government has yet to make their own vision clear,” David comments.

On long-haul low-cost carriers, the pieces goes on to say that they are “jumping on to the already congested transatlantic market with new aircraft types, watering down what was a lucrative source of income”.

“It’s going to be a long winter,” David says. “There are a number of value players growing their position on transatlantic and it’s not quite as fat as it used to be. You wouldn’t want to pick winners and losers at this stage, but after what happened with Monarch, more and more people are thinking about buying their tickets on credit cards, rather than debit cards, just in case. Value-based carriers are changing the transatlantic market, but not everyone will be a winner,” David adds.

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