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The future of the twenty-first century barcode

Second sight

Second sight: RFID

Technology is changing at such a pace that it is important to keep abreast with developments. So we decided to introduce this new feature - ‘Second sight’ - where we revisit technologies covered in previous editions of 2020 to see whether they have lived up to expectations or not.

In 2004, issue 1 of 2020 showcased some applications of radio frequency identification (RFID) in the areas of supply chain and asset tagging. The prediction from industry analysts at the time was that RFID tags would become the ‘Twenty first century barcode’ and at the time, many analysts were predicting double figure growth in this area over the following years. However, we also identified barriers to adoption, such as the infrastructure costs and concerns about civil liberties.

Where are we now?

So, three years later, has the RFID tagging reality lived up to the ‘twenty-first century barcode’ hype - and have the barriers been overcome? The hype is settling down and the RFID industry in general has seen enormous growth, particularly around the areas of contactless smartcards and livestock tagging. However, the widely expected exponential growth in supply chain tagging has largely failed to materialize.

There are some success stories, however; for example, Procter & Gamble says it has already recovered its multimillion investment due to the improved accuracy of its deliveries to retailers, particularly during time-sensitive promotions. However, in many cases, organizations are still struggling to make the business case to justify the significant investment and cost is still a significant issue. Although civil liberties fears still exist, greater understanding of the technology’s limitations and industry steps to promote responsible RFID consumer policies are easing concerns.

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Second sight

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* Full index of downloadable Foresight papers