The threat of an avian flu pandemic continues to increase, with more cases, in more countries, with more mutations bringing human-to-human transmission closer.
According to the World Health Organization, as of 21 March 2006, 184 confirmed human cases of avian flu (H5N1) and 103 deaths have occurred in eight countries (Azerbaijan, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Iraq, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam). The CDC - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention - has noted that “most of these cases have occurred as a result of people having direct or close contact with infected poultry or contaminated surfaces.”
The problem is that influenza viruses have the ability to change (mutate), and person-to-person transmission could become possible leading to worldwide outbreak of disease (pandemic) because of the absence of human immune protection to H5N1 viruses. This scenario, combined with notable shortfalls in treatment and vaccination options, creates a threat that we have not encountered for many decades.
However, it is unclear what any single company or organisation can do in the face of this global threat. What we have learned is that advance planning can make a significant difference in response times and effectiveness.
Simulation models are a key tool for such efforts.
