2004
Mobile equipment vendors face a bleak long term outlook despite recent stock performance, says report
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15 July 2004
Morgan Stanley has revisited the global mobile equipment model it developed with PA Consulting Group in the fourth quarter of 2003. The long term conclusions remain of an industry in decline up to 2010, after a couple of years of 'stabilization' in the short term. The report estimates global wireless vendor revenues could decline from US$45 billion in 2002 to US$33 billion in 2010 - a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5% for 2003-10.
Recently the stock market has responded positively to signs of growth in 2004, encouraged that this will be followed by accelerating growth in 2005. The report however suggest this 'stabilization' is more of a pause prior to further decline. The model estimates global wireless vendor revenues will rise 1.8% in 2004, increase 0.4%in 2005, before declining from 2006 to 2010.
Morgan Stanley commissioned PA Consulting Group, experts in the telecommunications industry, to develop a bottom-up model to forecast wireless equipment vendor revenues worldwide. The research was based on a detailed study of the dynamics of growth for hundreds of mobile operators around the world. The model includes views on roll-out strategies, regulatory environment and coverage deployments, predicting wireless equipment revenue in terms of coverage, capacity and replacement revenues.
Alan Young of PA Consulting Group, and Angela Dean, Head of Morgan Stanley's European Telecom Equipment research team, are available for interview by arrangement.
The executive summary of the original report 'Hopes of Growth Fade: A Proprietary Approach' of 28 October 2003 is available to download from the PA Web site here. Copies of the full report can be requested from anna.lenaghan@morganstanley.com.
For more information, please contact:
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| Antonia Norton |
| PA Consulting Group |
| 123 Buckingham Palace Road |
| London |
| SW1W 9SR |
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Tel: +44 207 312 4832 |
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Fax: +44 207 333 5091 |
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E-mail:
antonia.norton@paconsulting.com |
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Notes to editors
About Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley is one of the world's largest diversified financial services companies, with a reputation for excellence in advice and execution on a global scale. Our Firm enjoys leading franchises in three attractive businesses: Global Securities, where Morgan Stanley serves individual and institutional investors and investment banking clients; Global Asset Management, with our highly rated Morgan Stanley and Van Kampen funds; and Global Credit Card Services, with our Discover Card, held by 40% of U.S. households, as well as a growing Morgan Stanley card business in the United Kingdom.
Long-term trends are driving growth across these businesses, from advances in technology and deregulation of global securities markets to increased demand for retirement planning. The diversity of our businesses and the strength of our brands make us less vulnerable to short-term market cycles while producing superior returns on equity compared with our peers.
For further information go to: www.morganstanley.com
About PA Consulting Group
PA: delivering value
PA Consulting Group is a leading management, systems and technology consulting firm. Operating worldwide in more than 35 countries, PA draws on the knowledge and experience of 3,000 people, whose skills span the initial generation of ideas, insights and solutions all the way through to detailed implementation.
PA focuses on creating benefits for clients rather than merely proposing them. Our work is founded on powerful insights into our clients' issues, and in the private sector in particular, on the need to deliver superior shareholder returns. We help accelerate business growth by developing innovative products for our clients and by the application of emerging technology. We deliver major transformation programmes, mobilize human resources, and manage complex IT and technically-challenging programmes.
PA's results-focused approach is founded on a unique commitment to excellence, value and independence:
Excellence. We are committed to unremitting excellence and quality in every aspect of our work: in our relationships with our clients, in the client assignments we deliver, and in the people we recruit and develop, who enjoy exciting and rewarding careers at PA.
Value. PA's consultants bring an intense focus on delivering value through deep industry insight, the development and application of technology, and our culture of respect, collaboration and flexibility in working with clients.
Independence. PA is independent of outsourcing, software, hardware and audit providers. We are the pre-eminent client-side advisor on IT and outsourcing projects, and deliver, in partnership with our clients, business solutions tailored to our clients' needs, rather than solutions pre-determined by commercial alliances. As an employee-owned company, we are answerable to our clients and to ourselves only.
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