The trick is to emerge in a better position relative to the competition.
The UK, according to the Chancellor Gordon Brown, is not heading for a recession. British managers seem less sure about that, however. And if they run international operations the question is of limited relevance anyway. Large parts of the world - in Asia, eastern Europe and South America - are in recession already.
What strategies should chief executives adopt for a downturn? For most of them the question has the force of novelty. During the last UK recession from 1990 to 92, many would have been on corporate boards but not necessarily as chief executives. By no means all would have been in the same company, or even the same industry.
This is not to imply that past recessions are an infallible guide to the future. No two recessions are alike. The various components of the economy - manufacturing and services, housebuilding and leisure - may all turn down, but in a different order and to a different extent.
The natural response to a downturn is defensive, to cut costs, postpone investment and hiring and avoid risk in general. But there are opportunities as well.
In terms of market and industry structures, recessions are periods of accelerated change. The trick is to exploit those changes, so that you emerge from the downturn in a better position relative to the competition than you went into it.
One way to do this, say Steve Tappin and Rob Anderson, of the London management consultancy PA Consulting, is to pay the closest possible attention to your markets. In response to recessionary pressures, all the participants in a given market will reposition themselves. Some will withdraw marginal products. New competitors may come in. This may result in gaps opening up. As Mr Tappin puts it: 'Basic positions in the market are up for grabs.'
In such a period of accelerated change, it makes sense to scrutinise your markets in a more opportunistic way and prepare to change strategy at short notice.
This may not be easy. Compared with the last recession, the next is likely to be more complex in managerial terms.
Companies have typically become more international in the meantime, and many have grown through mergers. They are therefore more decentralised. This makes it harder for the chief executive to stay in touch with the company's individual markets.
The immediate reaction of most companies to a downturn is to concentrate on the things they can control - staffing, advertising and so forth. Mr Anderson says: 'Every now and then these days, we meet a guy who does see the opportunity and wants to raise finance for it. They are a joy to talk to, but they are only one in 10.'
As a consultant, of course, Mr Anderson is not a disinterested party. Indeed, chief executives must consider one essential point. If they are risk-averse in a downturn, so are their shareholders.
If companies announce they see a recession as an opportunity to take aggressive action, the stock market may take fright.
But perhaps there is an opportunity here too. If companies take the time to explain to investors what their strategic thinking is, their share price may respond accordingly.
There may also be opportunities in staffing. In a downturn it may be more acceptable to get rid of people who are not worth their keep. But it is also a good time to poach good people from the competition.
It may also be a good time to switch around those staff who are being retained. Some may have been under-employed before and will be more so now. As for your key staff, this may be the time to increase their sense of security, and thus their performance, by offering them longer-term contracts.
And what about suppliers? One response to hard times is to squeeze them for better terms. But if a supplier is of long-term importance to you, might this be a good time to offer support including, for instance, taking an equity stake?
Much of this will seem counter-intuitive. It is in the nature of economic cycles that business people and their customers suffer from too much optimism in a boom and too much pessimism in a bust. Being a contrarian is all very well, but how do you know you are not being simply imprudent? The answer, Mr Tappin argues, lies once again in the markets for your products or services. If they turn down, the natural tendency is to look inwards, to draw in your horns.
But at the same time you should scrutinise the changes which recession is causing in your business environment. Make sure you have superior intelligence, then make prudent moves accordingly.
It helps, of course, if your finances are in good order. In pragmatic terms this is largely a matter of luck. As any portfolio investor could tell you, the fact that you correctly forecast one slump in the market does not mean you will spot the next one.
If you happen to have net cash when your industry turns down, you have a competitive advantage. If not, the chances of transforming your balance sheet in short order are limited.
After all, the financial markets suffer from precisely the same cycle of undue greed and fear which characterises your own.
Overall, though, the message is clear. Recessions are times when the usual balance between risk and reward is raised to unusual intensity. The conclusion is neatly encapsulated by Mr Anderson: attack where you can, defend where you must.
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